Industry analyst, Kontali, cuts growth forecast 40%

News
392

Central-Norway-based industry watcher, Kontali Analyse, said Wednesday that high salmon sales and reduced feed sales due to a colder winter have crimped volume estimates for 2018.

Kontali manager, Ragnar Nystoyl, said it’s slashing its recommendations on world salmon production. He’ll lower expectations of year-on-year volume from seven percent to four percent (or from 160,000 to 98,000 tonnes of salmon).

“The start of 2018 has seen our harvested volumes markedly lowered. That’s how biology works,” he said.

“(Strong salmon sales and less feed use) is expected to continue into March and April. Growth expectations for the first half of the year are reduced,” he said, adding that higher fish mortality rates have also been factored in.

It isn’t just Norway seeing less growth:

  • Chile has flagged unexpectedly high harvest volumes in December and January after algae-induced losses
  • Scotland saw a significant early cull in late-2017
  • The Faroe Islands have seen lower feed sales in December and January on increased mortality blamed on mechanical de-licing

The conclusion is less supply growth in 2018, Noystoyl said. “This is combined with a demand-side that has long desired more fish and has taken advantage of lower supermarket prices for salmon.”