Salmon traders brace for volatility: Key market forces to watch this week.
As the new trading week begins, market participants are closely watching several factors that could impact salmon prices and supply. Based on last Friday’s pricing report, here are five key elements to monitor in the days ahead:
1. Weather Disruptions and Logistics
Severe storms last week disrupted salmon transport routes in Northern Norway, leading to ferry cancellations and road closures, particularly on the E6 highway. While supply bottlenecks led to temporary shortages at the end of last week, the key question is whether conditions have improved enough for normal logistics to resume—or if further disruptions could limit supply and affect pricing.
2. Exchange Rate Volatility
The exchange rate remains a critical factor in salmon exports. With a weaker Norwegian krone, salmon becomes more competitively priced in key markets such as the EU, the UK, and the US. Traders will be watching closely to see if currency fluctuations provide an advantage to exporters or if a stronger krone could dampen demand.
3. Competitor Pricing and Iceland’s Return to Market
Iceland was largely absent from the market last week due to extreme weather conditions, but its return could influence pricing dynamics. If Icelandic suppliers resume normal operations, increased supply could stabilize prices—or, conversely, ongoing weather challenges could sustain higher price levels.
4. Demand Trends in Key Markets
European and US buyers have been cautious, with many holding prices steady despite last week’s supply disruptions. Will demand pick up in response to limited availability, or will buyers resist price increases? Additionally, any shifts in foodservice and retail demand—especially in response to inflation or economic conditions—could play a role in shaping price movements.
5. Large Fish Surplus and Its Impact
The market saw an unexpected surplus of 5+ kg salmon last week, leading to stagnant pricing for larger fish. If this surplus persists, it could weigh on prices in the coming days, particularly if supply outstrips demand. Processors and exporters will be assessing whether the market can absorb these volumes or if further price adjustments are necessary.
Outlook for the Week Ahead
While last week’s storms caused significant disruptions, the expected recovery of logistics, exchange rate movements, and competitive market dynamics will determine how prices evolve. Exporters and buyers will need to navigate these uncertainties carefully, and SalmonBusiness will continue to monitor and report on key developments as they unfold.
