After four consecutive weeks of sharp price drops, prices are set to rise again.
“It looks that way,” says an exporter to SalmonBusiness. “I believe we’re at NOK 76-77 ($7.14/€6.69) for 3-4 kg, NOK 78-79 ($7.33/€6.91) for 4-5 kg, and NOK 80 ($7.52/€7.04) for 5+ kg. There’s a lot of large fish. If there isn’t a price for 5+, it’s because 6+ is being priced lower than 5-6. There’s quite a bit of large fish. Conditions in the sea are good.”
He notes that the deep price drop from a peak of well over NOK 130 ($12.22/€11.44) per kilo in April opens up market opportunities.
Opportunities
“It came a bit too low on Friday. Customers see that at those levels, more opportunities open up for smoked and frozen fish. They get more orders to work with.”
Now, he hopes for stability.
“I hope it stabilizes. It would be a dream to work with changes of NOK 2-3 ($0.19-0.28/€0.18-0.26) per week – and not NOK 7-8 ($0.66-0.75/€0.62-0.70). It’s impossible for us exporters to maneuver with such large movements. First and foremost downwards, of course,” he adds.
“I hear NOK 75-80 ($7.05-7.52/€6.60-7.04). There is no reduction in volume, rather the opposite,” says a buyer. “Very little has been done,” he clarifies.
Stalemate
Several different sources point to a tug-of-war between players in a market trading between NOK 70 and 80 ($6.60-7.52/€6.16-7.04).
“I hear they are trying to get prices above NOK 80 ($7.52/€7.04), but customers don’t want to buy. It’s a stalemate. Customers say they will buy equivalent to NOK 77-78 ($7.24-7.33/€6.77-6.91) for 3-6 kg, at those levels they will buy,” says an exporter.
“5-6 kg is around NOK 80 ($7.52/€7.04). There’s a lot of large fish. The flight market is poor. And winter sores have healed. There is much less ‘production fish,'” he says.
“A small increase, I think,” he says about the salmon price. “Balanced. But a stalemate between customer and farmer,” he adds.
A farmer sees higher prices, especially for the largest fish. He writes the following in a text message to SalmonBusiness:
1-2 kg: NOK 68 ($6.39/€5.98)
2-3 kg: NOK 73 ($6.86/€6.42)
3-4 kg: NOK 78 ($7.33/€6.91)
4-5 kg: NOK 80 ($7.52/€7.04)
5-6 kg: NOK 82 ($7.71/€7.20)
6+ kg: NOK 85 ($7.99/€7.48)
SalmonBusiness gathers spot prices for salmon every Friday after lunch, tracking fish to be delivered the following week. This process involves contacting multiple entities in the value chain, including farmers, exporters, and importers. At least five independent sources are consulted, though they may not always be publicly disclosed.
