High Supply of Small Fish Lowers Spot Prices
“A challenging week, still struggling with pricing. It’s simply that time of year when there is too much supply compared to what we can price on a Friday. The price is definitely going down,” a buyer told SalmonBusiness this week.
“Sizes 3-4 kg are at NOK 63-64 ($5.98-$6.08/€5.42-€5.50) – down from NOK 65-66 ($6.18-$6.27/€5.59-€5.67) last Friday. Sizes 4-5 kg are one to two NOK above the 3-4 kg size, and 5-6 kg are two NOK above that again. It has a premium, by all means, but the differences are not significant,” he said.
Good Growth
“There is more 5-6 kg fish than expected, and it has been challenging. Good growth in the sea, and the groups have more 5-6 kg fish than we had anticipated. But still, most of it is industrial fish (3-6 kg),” he emphasized.
“The market is simply holding back. Once they get the prices, they place orders,” he added.
The price level is confirmed by other sources.
Normal
“Here, a fair amount of ISA-infected fish is being harvested, in smaller sizes, so there’s a bit more pressure on that. Almost stable on the larger sizes and slightly down on the smaller ones, especially on 1-2 kg and 2-3 kg,” said a trader.
“There’s good growth and a fair amount of fish. But there’s not that much harvesting of larger fish. It’s normal for this time, towards the end of August and onwards. Same every year. But this year, growth is good. It’s extending far up the coast. Maybe some sea lice issues too, but it hasn’t yet materialized into increased slaughtering. That’s uncertain. The farmers are good at getting it under control.”
The market expects that the salmon price will seasonally bottom out during September. Fish Pool’s forward curve shows a salmon price of NOK 71 ($6.75/€6.11) in September, rising to NOK 75.10 ($7.13/€6.46) in October and NOK 82.10 ($7.80/€7.06) in November.
Pressure
But in the short term, the price is going down.
“We are definitely moving downwards. Not for all sizes – especially on 1-4 kg,” said a buyer.
He pointed to the following salmon prices to farmers for the upcoming week:
- 2-3 kg: NOK 50 ($4.75/€4.30)
- 3-4 kg: NOK 60-61 ($5.70-$5.80/€5.16-€5.25)
- 4-5 kg: NOK 65 ($6.18/€5.59)
- 5-6 kg: NOK 68 ($6.46/€5.86)
“A hell of a lot of pressure out there. And the currency has weakened a bit. That makes a bit of a difference,” he said, referring to a euro at NOK 11.66.
“Clearly, there aren’t enough people freezing the fish, I think. People are packing more fish than the market can absorb. People have gotten burned on freezing. It’s expensive. And then we’ll see a six percent drop in September, so some will have to harvest. And there are a lot of lice problems in Central Norway, so some fish will have to be taken out.”
“Here in the south, it’s not so bad; we have freshwater lice treatment every day,” he said wryly.
SalmonBusiness gathers spot prices for salmon every Friday after lunch, tracking fish to be delivered the following week. This process involves contacting multiple entities in the value chain, including farmers, exporters, and importers. At least five independent sources are consulted, though they may not always be publicly disclosed.
