Small price movements in a market handling large volumes.
With about a month and a half until Christmas, it’s peak season for salmon harvesting and sales. Export volumes have stayed at record levels for two months straight, and during this period, salmon prices have quietly crept up.
There are no indications of significant price changes moving from this week into the next.
“Stable prices, I think,” a trader told SalmonBusiness on Friday.
Balance
He referred to the following purchase prices, for the producer:
- 2-3 kg: NOK 58 ($5.29/€4.93)
- 3-4 kg: NOK 66-67 ($6.02-6.10/€5.61-5.70)
- 4-5 kg: NOK 69-70 ($6.29-6.37/€5.87-5.95)
- 5-6 kg: NOK 77-78 ($7.01-7.10/€6.56-6.63)
- 6+ kg: NOK 90-94 ($8.19-8.60/€7.66-8.00)
“A lot of money is changing hands with the smaller fish. You can’t lower the price, you can forget about that. The market is balanced, as we see it. No complaints.”
He noted the significant export volumes being sent out lately. Last week, over 37,000 tons of Norwegian salmon were exported, when converted to round weight.
“Impressive volumes. It’s a bit concerning when you see how much fish is going out now, especially with the first half of the year in mind. There’s quite a lot going out. We expect high prices from December through the first half of next year. We’re quite certain of that. I don’t think there’s much doubt,” he added.
The Fish Pool salmon exchange is trading annual contracts for 2025 at around NOK 97 per kilo ($8.88/€8.25).
Tariffs?
“The market is strong. It seems to me that less fish is being frozen this year compared to last. So we’re quite optimistic, actually. It’s a product people want. Let’s just hope there won’t be tariffs on exports to the USA. It’s hard to know with the new president,” he continued.
“People have better control over the sea lice situation now. There’s some concern about jellyfish. But biologically, things look good.”
All five industry sources SalmonBusiness spoke to after lunch on Friday were fairly aligned on price levels. No major changes from the previous Friday were evident.
“2-3 kg at NOK 59-60 ($5.38-5.47/€5.01-5.10), 3-4 kg at NOK 68-69 ($6.18-6.27/€5.78-5.87), 4-5 kg at NOK 71-73 ($6.45-6.63/€6.04-6.20). We have nothing to sell in the 5-6 kg range, but sellers say they can get NOK 80 ($7.33/€6.80),” said a farmer.
“As for 6+ kg, I don’t know. There seems to be a bit of a shortage in the 5-6 kg range.”
SalmonBusiness gathers spot prices for salmon every Friday after lunch, tracking fish to be delivered the following week. This process involves contacting multiple entities in the value chain, including farmers, exporters, and importers. At least five independent sources are consulted, though they may not always be publicly disclosed.
