Calm before the storm in the pre-Christmas salmon market.
“There’s talk of a slight increase next week. Both customers and farmers are discussing a small rise. We’re probably looking at around NOK 80 ($7.20/€6.80),” a trader told SalmonBusiness on Friday lunchtime regarding this week’s salmon prices.
“There’s no big hype going around. It’s moving steadily,” he said.
Difference in timing
“It’s dead quiet,” said one farmer. “We’re heading into week 50, and towards the end of that week, we’re into week 51. There’s a huge difference per kilo in what you can get for a truckload today compared to next Thursday. Today, we’re struggling to get NOK 71 ($6.39/€6.04) per truck, but by the end of next week, we’ll be getting NOK 77 ($6.93/€6.55).”
“Given the market price at the end of next week, we’re seeing 3-4 kg salmon at NOK 80-81 ($7.20-7.29/€6.80-6.89), 4-5 kg at NOK 83-84 ($7.47-7.56/€7.06-7.14), and 5-6 kg at NOK 95-97 ($8.55-8.73/€8.08-8.23),” he continued.
“There hasn’t been a Christmas peak in prices in recent years. I think that will happen closer to January.”
Campaigns
Others expect more moderate prices.
“It looks stable. Some will say it’s going up,” said a buyer, who provided the following price estimates for next week:
- 2-3 kg: NOK 68-69 ($6.12-6.21/€5.78-5.87)
- 3-4 kg: NOK 75-76 ($6.75-6.84/€6.38-6.46)
- 4-5 kg: NOK 78-80 ($7.02-7.20/€6.63-6.80)
- 5-6 kg: NOK 90 ($8.10/€7.65)
- 6+ kg: NOK 110-115 ($9.90-10.35/€9.35-9.78)
“The airfreight market is fairly good. In the European market, there’s a lot of smaller fish. Some have achieved higher prices through campaigns, but the market overall isn’t at those levels. Large harvests are forecast for next week. We hope to keep prices stable, and if we manage that, we’ll be satisfied,” he said.
Last Production Rush Before Christmas
The upcoming week is the final “production week” for processed fish before Christmas.
“Many producers are done with smoked salmon production. Now, it’s the fresh market that will drive demand.”
“3-4 kg salmon is going for NOK 76 ($6.84/€6.46), 4-5 kg at NOK 77-78 ($6.93-7.02/€6.55-6.63), and larger sizes are seeing positive pricing: 5-6 kg at NOK 88-89 ($7.92-8.01/€7.48-7.57), and 6+ kg at NOK 112-113 ($10.08-10.17/€9.52-9.61). The 2-3 kg category has risen significantly, likely reaching NOK 72-73 ($6.48-6.57/€6.12-6.20),” said an exporter.
“It seems there will be less slaughter ahead. The usual Christmas rush isn’t as strong this year. The mid-range sizes, 3-5 kg, are the most challenging. There’s a lot of it, and demand for that range is just poor,” he observed.
SalmonBusiness gathers spot prices for salmon every Friday after lunch, tracking fish to be delivered the following week. This process involves contacting multiple entities in the value chain, including farmers, exporters, and importers. At least five independent sources are consulted, though they may not always be publicly disclosed.
