Plenty of Unsold Fish Pressures the Market
No signs of a price increase heading into mid-January.
It has been a roller coaster for salmon prices over the holiday season and into the new year, with prices first soaring and then dropping sharply.
“Prices Have Dropped Significantly”
“It’s clear that the price fell a lot. Everyone knew it dropped by NOK 20 ($1.74/€1.70). We traded at NOK 109 ($9.48/€9.27) for 4-5 kg fish and NOK 98 ($8.52/€8.33) for 3-4 kg fish. The 5-6 kg fish fell the most, trading at NOK 125 ($10.88/€10.62),” one buyer told SalmonBusiness.
He noted that prices for next week have yet to stabilize but shared the following estimates for fish packed at the end of this week:
- 3-4 kg: NOK 90-92 ($7.83-8.00/€7.65-7.82)
- 4-5 kg: NOK 97-98 ($8.44-8.52/€8.24-8.33)
- 5-6 kg: NOK 105 ($9.14/€8.92)
- 6+ kg: NOK 125 ($10.88/€10.62)
A Waiting Market
“Weeks 52 and 1 are always light in terms of fish supply; everyone knows that. That’s when prices go up. Fish packed today is being sold at these levels,” he told said.
The prices he shared indicate a further decline from last Friday.
“There’s no increase. The market isn’t moving upwards. It’s quiet. There’s more than enough fish available, and nothing is happening. I think it will be late before anything picks up. If you look at weeks 2 and 3 last year, prices fell both weeks. We’re being offered lots of large fish, but the market can’t absorb it all.”
A Seasonal Trend
A trader largely echoed this market description:
“The price has dropped quite a bit. But this is normal. It’s the same for all fish species. There’s usually a week or two like this, and then prices come down. After Christmas, people start paying off their credit debt. January is always the weakest market.”
“No prices have been set yet, but my gut says under NOK 90 ($7.83/€7.65) for 3-4 kg, NOK 92-93 ($8.00-8.09/€7.82-7.90) for 4-5 kg, and NOK 100 ($8.70/€8.50) for 5-6 kg. That’s at least a significant drop from last Friday. It will settle down to more reasonable levels,” he added.
Larger Fish Driving Volumes
An exporter shared a similar outlook but expects slightly higher prices.
“I think it will continue to adjust downward. It seems like there’s steady harvesting happening everywhere. Everyone slaughtering fish is seeing 200-400 grams more weight than expected. Bigger fish, more large fish, and more volume.”
“We haven’t started buying yet, but I think it will be around:
- 3-4 kg: NOK 90-92 ($7.83-8.00/€7.65-7.82)
- 4-5 kg: NOK 98-100 ($8.52-8.70/€8.33-8.50)
- 5-6 kg: NOK 105-106 ($9.14-9.22/€8.92-9.01)
For smaller sizes, 2-3 kg will likely be in the low NOK 80s ($6.96-7.05/€6.80-6.88), while 6+ kg fish will go for NOK 115-120 ($10.00-10.44/€9.78-10.20). So, roughly a NOK 10 ($0.87/€0.85) difference between 5-6 kg and 6+ kg,” he said.
Optimism for a Price Rebound
Producers, however, are less pessimistic about price levels.
“We haven’t sold anything yet, but we’re seeing NOK 96-97 ($8.35-8.43/€8.16-8.24) for 3-4 kg, NOK 105 ($9.14/€8.92) for 4-5 kg, and NOK 115 ($10.00/€9.78) for 5-6 kg. Unsold 5-6 kg fish is priced much lower today, but unsold is unsold—it’s a new market next week,” one farmer emphasized.
The price decline is seen as temporary, particularly with the Chinese New Year celebrations approaching at the end of the month. Fish Pool’s February contract is currently at €9,530 per tonne (NOK 112.16/$9.74 per kg). This forward price is expected to rise further into spring, peaking in April at €10,330 per tonne (NOK 121.58/$10.57 per kg).
SalmonBusiness gathers spot prices for salmon every Friday after lunch, tracking fish to be delivered the following week. This process involves contacting multiple entities in the value chain, including farmers, exporters, and importers. At least five independent sources are consulted, though they may not always be publicly disclosed.
