The Market Turns Upward
“This week has gone fine. Everyone senses that prices are going up. There was a lot more chasing yesterday, but now more fish are showing up. But it’s a couple of kroner up, from what I can see. Not for 6+, that’s under pressure. I hear the price is the same for 5+. The air freight market is nothing to brag about. The market in general is holding back,” says a buyer to SalmonBusiness.
FACTS
“I hear people are paying 70-72 NOK ($6.58-$6.77/€6.02-€6.19) for 2-3 kg, the same as last time. 3-4 kg at 80 NOK ($7.52/€6.88), up by two kroner. 4-5 kg at 82 NOK ($7.71/€7.05), and 5+ kg at 84 NOK ($7.90/€7.22).”
“And then the currency has weakened—there are two kroner just from the currency shift. Clearly, the market price has to go up,” he argues.
Trump Risk
He sees the current price levels in the market as positive.
“If the price stays at 7-7.50 euros per kilo, new markets can be developed. But people are nervous—they don’t want to build (freeze) inventory because they don’t know what that crazy Trump will do.”
The March contract on Fish Pool is at 7,620 euros per ton, or 7.62 euros per kilo. The April contract is at 7,150 euros per ton, while the May contract is 8,200 euros.
Many industry sources are heading across the Atlantic this Friday for the Boston Seafood Show, which kicks off next week. One farmer who is not attending sees a significant price increase.
“Today we’re selling for 88-90 NOK ($8.27-$8.46/€7.57-€7.74) for 3-6 kg. I could probably sell 50 truckloads at 88 NOK ($8.27/€7.57) for 3-6 kg, delivered to Oslo. We didn’t sell at 78 NOK ($7.33/€6.71) last Friday, but for us, we see an increase of six to eight kroner,” he says.
Increased Demand
He believes this is being driven by buyers.
“The big industrial players have really woken up. I think the slaughtering patterns have changed for medium and large producers. It could also be that we’re getting closer to Easter, which means higher demand. And it’s useful to look at total export volumes in recent weeks and see how large they’ve been. That’s good to keep in mind,” he says.
Another salmon farmer confirms a significant price increase. He simply sends a picture along with the following text message:
‘Have a great weekend, sir. Say hi to the wife.’
SalmonBusiness collects spot prices for salmon every Friday after lunch. These are fish that will be delivered the following week. We contact multiple levels of the value chain, including farmers, exporters, and importers. We always have at least five independent sources, although not all of them necessarily appear in print. We vary which sources we use and do not rely on the same ones each time.
