Kontali forecasts 5% growth in global salmon supply for 2025.
Norwegian analytical firm Kontali projects a 5% increase in global Atlantic salmon harvest volumes in 2025, driven by higher biomass, strong production, and lower losses in the first quarter. The estimate is based on three- to five-year averaged productivity parameters, which serve as a benchmark for the most likely outcome.
While company guidance suggests potential growth of nearly 11%, past forecasts have often been overly optimistic. Industry commentators predict growth as low as 2.5% to 3%, highlighting uncertainty in actual harvest volumes.
Kontali’s lead analyst for salmonids, Lars Daniel Garshol, noted that unlocking idle capacity will depend on reducing losses, improving growth performance, and optimizing biomass utilization from September to November. Fewer sea lice treatments, reduced lost feeding days, and improved biosecurity are expected to support efficiency gains.
Despite an increase of 70 million stocked fish in Norway since 2019, Maximum Allowable Biomass (MAB) capacity has grown by just 1%, leaving untapped potential. Regulatory limits will also cap weight gains in the second half of the year.
New cage technology, including closed and shielded systems, is expected to contribute to production growth, while shorter production cycles and increased turnover could improve overall efficiency. Kontali sees these factors as key to shaping 2025’s supply outlook.
