Short-term pricing pressure prompts broad downgrade of salmon stocks.
Arctic Securities has downgraded its rating on the salmon farming sector to hold, citing a weaker price environment and a need for downward revisions to earnings expectations.
In a sector report published Friday, the investment bank cut its 2025 salmon price forecast to NOK 82 per kilo, with estimated quarterly prices of NOK 83.7 in Q2, NOK 73.8 in Q3, and NOK 78.8 in Q4. The Q2 estimate is around 30 percent below consensus.
Despite maintaining a constructive view on 2026 — with an estimated price of NOK 88 per kilo and limited expected supply growth — Arctic said short-term pricing headwinds are likely to weigh on equity performance in the months ahead.
“We downgrade all traditional salmon farmers to hold, driven by a weaker salmon price environment,” the firm wrote. “Within the sector, we prefer low-cost producers such as Mowi and SalMar, but overall we expect consensus estimates to be revised materially lower in the near term, which could put pressure on share prices.”
Companies affected include Mowi, SalMar, Lerøy Seafood, Grieg Seafood, Bakkafrost, and Austevoll Seafood.