Kontali Analysis sees significant increase in processed volumes next year
An investor letter from Pareto Securities has disclosed that an updated, overnight analysis conducted by Kontali Analysis (of Kristiansand, Norway) has revealed Norwegian salmon biomass at the end of October stood 10 percent higher than at the same time a year ago.
For comparison, the biomass — including warehoused farmed fish still in marine pens — was up eight percent over the end of September.
“This high biomass was driven by 20-percent higher biomass in this year’s generation, while last year’s generation has five percent higher biomass. The number of fish has, however, is just two percent higher,” Pareto Securities commented.
“The biomass at the end of October versus the end of September is driven by extremely strong feed sales, while slaughtered volumes were up 10 percent year-on-year. Kontali estimates feed sales in October to be 26-percent higher than last year (which was a weak year), but also 14 percent higher than the 2015 feed sale.”
In 2016, Norway’s total “living” biomass of salmon and trout, according to Kontali, was 1, 339, 600 tonnes. Some 400,000 t of that was formerly “throw-away” bits now 91 percent utilized to some commercial purpose.
Pareto, which has a positive outlook on the pricing of fish-farming shares, is not entirely comfortable with the development of biomass and the coming processed volumes.
“We estimate a seven-percent growth in Norwegian processed volumes in 2018, and we see an upside in this estimate should this development continue,” the letter states.