Arctic Securities lowers price targets for salmon sector on weaker market estimates

Arctic Securities has revised down its price targets for listed salmon producers, citing lower-than-expected salmon prices in the first half of the year.

The bank outlined its updated outlook in a sector report released on Thursday.

Last year, the industry faced record-high mortality rates and a historically low share of superior-quality salmon. However, the situation has now reversed due to the introduction of a new winter ulcer vaccine, Arctic noted.

While the vaccine has improved fish survival and quality, it has also increased supply, exerting downward pressure on prices in the short term.

Arctic has reduced its first-quarter salmon price estimate to NOK 93 per kilo, down from NOK 100, and its second-quarter estimate to NOK 99 per kilo, from NOK 103, according to TDN Direkt.

The brokerage also pointed to uncertainty over potential tariffs on salmon exports, which it considers a bigger risk factor for the sector than short-term supply and demand fluctuations.

Updated Recommendations

Arctic Securities adjusted its price targets across several listed salmon farming companies while maintaining a mix of buy and hold recommendations:

The firm’s revised outlook comes as the salmon market adjusts to shifting biological conditions and regulatory uncertainties, with investors closely watching pricing trends and trade policy developments.