Prices for large salmon under pressure following halt in Chinese exports.
Rumors of a significant price increase for salmon spread on Thursday, briefly boosting salmon company stocks. However, today paints a different picture.
“It would be an understatement to call it volatile. Things are changing by the hour, and it’s chaos. It’s been tough for exporters like us to make a profit. I don’t think many have earned anything so far in January,” a buyer told SalmonBusiness on Friday.
He referred to an email from Pareto regarding a substantial price hike that became a hot topic in the market yesterday. The email, however, was far from the current reality.
Losses Mount
For next week, he anticipates the following prices for salmon producers:
- 3-4 kg: NOK 85-86 ($7.57-7.65 / €7.23-7.31)
- 4-5 kg: NOK 87-88 ($7.74-7.82 / €7.40-7.48)
- 5+ kg: NOK 89-90 ($7.93-8.01 / €7.57-7.65)
“The 5+ fish is where people are losing money. With China out of the market for Lunar New Year, more large fish are available, and I won’t pay more than NOK 89-90 ($7.93-8.01 / €7.57-7.65) max,” he said.
He added: “Either there will be a price just for the 5+ fish, or we’ll see at most a NOK 1 ($0.09 / €0.085) increase on larger fish. There’s simply too much of it coming in. As it looks now, 6-7 kg salmon will go to the industrial market in Europe next week.”
East Asian countries, particularly China, South Korea, and Taiwan, are major buyers of large, air-shipped salmon. In Week 3, China was Norway’s largest salmon customer. However, with Lunar New Year celebrations this week and next, these countries are temporarily absent from the market.
Challenging Market
Other industry players confirmed these price levels.
“I’m in these discussions, and it’s an extremely challenging market,” said one trader.
“There are significant fluctuations. Prices for 2-3 kg and 3-4 kg fish are relatively stable, but there’s been a sharp decline in 5+ kg fish,” added another. “The airfreight market is dead—it’s Lunar New Year. What we’re seeing is essentially a 4+ price level in the market.”
For unsold fish today, he sees the following prices:
- 2-3 kg: NOK 75 ($6.68 / €6.38)
- 3-4 kg: NOK 82-83 ($7.30-7.38 / €6.97-7.05)
- 4+ kg: NOK 85-87 ($7.57-7.74 / €7.23-7.40)
Prices for next week remain uncertain.
“It’s a complicated picture. Next week…? We don’t know. Prices aren’t trending upward. We expect much the same over the weekend. Big players have a lot of fish. The offers we hear customers are getting are extremely low, but it’s a market-driven situation, and there’s not much we can do,” he explained.
“It’s been a tough week—really, three tough weeks. It’s complicated. Good volumes, lots of big fish, lots of 5+. It’s not the 2-3 kg sizes that have taken a hit—it’s the 4+. It’s not unusual for this to happen, that large fish take a sharp drop. Now, it’s a full stop. Bringing in air-freighted fish over the weekend won’t help.”
Strong Exports
A salmon producer confirmed slightly lower prices than last Friday.
“I was sure this would turn around sooner, with strong exports to certain countries like China and very little ‘production fish’ [prodfisk]. It seems to be turning now,” he said.
However, he reported slightly higher prices than exporters:
- 3-4 kg: NOK 89 ($7.93 / €7.57)
- 4-5 kg: NOK 91 ($8.10 / €7.74)
- 5-6 kg: “Not much higher than 4-5 kg, maybe NOK 1 ($0.09 / €0.085) more.”
“If exports continue at the pace we saw last week, prices could stay low. Prices for 5-6 kg and 6+ kg fish have dropped by more than NOK 50 ($4.45 / €4.25) in just a few weeks,” he noted.
He added: “There’s been a price increase since Tuesday and Wednesday, but not from last Friday. It’s been a rollercoaster over the past few weeks.”
“For unsold fish, prices were down in the NOK 80s ($7.12-7.97 / €6.80-7.23). If we had Monday harvests of 3-4 kg fish, they’d be at NOK 82-83 ($7.30-7.38 / €6.97-7.05),” he concluded.
SalmonBusiness gathers spot prices for salmon every Friday after lunch, tracking fish to be delivered the following week. This process involves contacting multiple entities in the value chain, including farmers, exporters, and importers. At least five independent sources are consulted, though they may not always be publicly disclosed.
