Three public holidays and a short workweek have caused a dramatic surge in salmon prices.
“It’s busy,” began one trader. “We haven’t started buying yet, but I’m hearing NOK 87 ($7.66/€7.31) for 3-4 kg, NOK 93 ($8.18/€7.81) for 4-5 kg, and NOK 110 ($9.68/€9.24) for 5-6 kg. For 6+ kg, it depends on how much you have, but I’d estimate NOK 140 ($12.32/€11.76). But we don’t have much of that,” he added.
“It’s going to be expensive. I feel like every phone call pushes the price higher. We’ll see. It’s a fantastically short week. That’s what’s driving it.”
Most Expensive in a While
The fact that Christmas week amounts to just two working days was emphasised by all sources SalmonBusiness spoke to after lunch on Friday.
“Monday won’t be much more expensive than this week. Friday will be the expensive day. Not many people need fish, but next Friday the price will be high,” said an exporter.
“NOK 100 ($8.80/€8.40) for anything over three kilos. It’s likely to be the most expensive fish we’ve seen in a while. Expectations are high,” he said.
To find average prices above NOK 100, one would need to look back to early summer.
Price Race
“Yesterday, there was talk of prices jumping NOK 20 ($1.76/€1.68),” said another exporter. “There are few packing days. It’s clear this is not an easy week. Many are cutting back on slaughter volumes in general. There’s a lot of small fish and problem fish. Some of the larger producers are going to reduce slaughtering significantly in the coming weeks. That’s clear, and we know it will happen. That drives up prices and pulls everything with it.”
While last Friday’s average prices were in the mid-80s (NOK), a dramatic jump is expected going into Christmas week. Historically, this isn’t unusual for this period.
“Our problem is that we almost have nothing to sell,” said one salmon farmer. “With such low volumes next week – and quite a bit of indexed sales and fixed contracts – we don’t have much room for raw spot sales.”
“Sellers are saying NOK 95 ($8.36/€7.98) for 3-4 kg and NOK 100 ($8.80/€8.40) for 4-5 kg were ‘too easy’ – so the actual prices are probably a bit higher. Over NOK 120 ($10.56/€10.08) for 5-6 kg. There’s a shortage of 5-6 kg fish.”
Wild Prices
Another salmon farmer anticipates significantly higher prices for the coming week.
“It looks like prices are going to rise by around NOK 30 ($2.64/€2.52) next week,” he said.
That would mean prices well above NOK 100.
“Far above. I sold a couple of truckloads of 5-6 kg fish at NOK 140 ($12.32/€11.76) in Oslo just now. For 6+ kg, NOK 155 ($13.64/€13.02). For 2-3 kg, NOK 99 ($8.71/€8.32). For 3-4 kg, NOK 113 ($9.94/€9.49). And for 4-5 kg, NOK 119 ($10.47/€9.99).”
“I think it will continue,” he said optimistically. “It’ll be the same the following week. In any case, it’s wild,” he concluded.
SalmonBusiness gathers spot prices for salmon every Friday after lunch, tracking fish to be delivered the following week. This process involves contacting multiple entities in the value chain, including farmers, exporters, and importers. At least five independent sources are consulted, though they may not always be publicly disclosed.
