Could the returning US president threaten Scottish salmon’s success in the US?
Donald Trump’s second term as U.S. president kicked off with what some are calling an unexpected show of restraint. Instead of immediately implementing the hefty tariffs promised during his campaign, Trump issued a presidential memorandum on his first day in office, calling for a comprehensive review of unfair trade practices.
While this move has delayed any immediate action, it signals the beginning of what is expected to be a tumultuous period for global trade, with potential repercussions for Scotland’s prized salmon export market. As Scotland’s largest food export, worth £140 million to the U.S. alone in 2023, fresh Scottish salmon could find itself on the frontlines of Trump’s proposed tariff policies.
A Global Success Story
Scottish salmon is a powerhouse of the UK’s food exports, surpassing iconic products like cheese and chocolate. In 2022, it was exported to 54 countries, with the US ranking as the second-largest market after France. Scottish salmon’s international reputation is underscored by accolades like the prestigious Label Rouge certification, awarded by France for exceptional taste and quality—a testament to its global appeal.
The US market, prized for its demand for premium fresh salmon, relies on air freight to ensure timely delivery. Scottish salmon harvested at midnight can be served on American plates within 48 hours, reflecting the intricate logistics and high standards driving this international trade.
Risks of a Trade War
However, Trump’s protectionist trade policies could disrupt this carefully balanced system. During his first term, Trump imposed tariffs on European goods, including a 25% duty on Scotch whisky, leading to an estimated £600 million loss in sales over 18 months. If similar tariffs were extended to Scottish salmon, the industry could face reduced demand, higher consumer prices, and strained profit margins.
Speaking last week, Jonathan Reynolds, the UK’s Business and Trade Secretary, acknowledged these risks, describing the UK’s economy as “globally oriented” and thus particularly vulnerable to tariff wars. “Tariffs are paid by your own people. It’s got real pressures in terms of your inflation, in terms of your ability to employ people, to export to other markets,” Reynolds said.
With 64% of Scottish salmon exports going to the EU, the US remains a crucial market outside Europe. Losing competitiveness there would not only impact export revenues but could also affect Scotland’s rural communities, where salmon farming sustains more than 12,500 direct and indirect jobs.
A Wider Economic Impact
Trump’s proposed tariffs could go as high as 20% on all imports and significantly higher for goods from specific regions like China, Mexico, and possibly Europe. While the specifics remain unclear, any broad application of tariffs would likely disrupt the flow of fresh salmon to US consumers, who have developed a taste for Scotland’s premium seafood.
The Scottish salmon sector has long been an ambassador for the UK’s food and drink industry, symbolizing quality, sustainability, and innovation. It has not only fueled export growth but also played a pivotal role in supporting local economies, particularly in remote and coastal areas.
As the Trump administration deliberates its trade policies, the stakes are high for Scotland’s aquaculture sector. Industry leaders and policymakers must act swiftly to safeguard access to the US market and mitigate the potential fallout of tariff-driven trade disruptions.
