Optimism is spreading.
High feeding levels and increased growth in the pens, have brought increased slaughter volumes throughout late summer and autumn. This increased supply, met by reduced demand for fish, has been responsible for suppressing salmon prices in July, August, September and October. This is the case virtually every year, and 2021 has not been a bad one.
Gradually, as we approach the most important sales period of the year, the Christmas weekend, the demand for salmon is increasing. In late autumn, demand usually runs faster than the supply of fish, and the price of salmon increases as a function of this.
Near the bottom
We are now approaching the seasonal floor for salmon prices.
The reopening of the HoReCa segment over the autumn is expected to contribute to another boost in this year’s demand ahead of Christmas shopping.
SalmonBusiness has conducted an informal poll on Twitter. We have challenged readers to guess the spot price for 4-5 kilo salmon (for fish farmers) on the last Friday before Christmas Eve.
And the response from readers is quite unambiguously optimistic. Based on four alternative price ranges, readers have voted as follows:
- 55-60 kroner (€5.50-6.00): 6.8 per cent
- 60-65 kroner (€6.00-6.50): 20.5 per cent
- 65-70 kroner (€6.50-7.00): 38.6 per cent
- More than 70 kroner (€7.00): 34.1 per cent
There is a clear bias towards the upper end of the price range. The largest group predicts prices between 65 and 70 kroner (€6.50-7.00) on Friday 17 December. But, and it is worth noting, more than a third of the sample believe that the spot price will be above 70 kroner (€7.00) the last Friday before Christmas.
By comparison, Fish Pool’s forward curve for the salmon price (delivered to Oslo) shows NOK 66.30 (€6.58) for the entire month of December.
Last Friday, salmon was selling at just under 50 kroner (€4.96) on average. SalmonBusiness will, as usual, report next week’s spot prices after lunch on Friday.