Salmon farming’s balancing act.
The salmon industry is once again proving that biology and economics do not always pull in the same direction. Arctic Securities has revised down its price expectations, pointing to improved survival rates and higher fish quality following the introduction of a winter ulcer vaccine. The problem? More fish are making it to harvest weight, supply is rising, and prices are falling.
It is an odd reality, but not a new one. Last year, an industry veteran put it bluntly: “This is the only industry where the worse you do, the more money you make.” When disease and high mortality shrink volumes, prices surge.
But when fish survive in greater numbers, the market reacts by driving prices down. Arctic now expects first-quarter prices of NOK 93 per kilo, down from NOK 100, with further declines for Q2.
Yet while falling prices may frustrate producers, strong biological performance is not a problem—it is an imperative. The industry’s social license depends on it. The long-term viability of salmon farming rests not on price spikes driven by crisis, but on a stable and sustainable production model that avoids the boom-and-bust cycle of scarcity pricing.
Salmon farmers must find a way to balance profitability with credibility—because in the long run, the industry cannot afford to be in a position where bad biology is good business.
