Strong growth and swelling biomass trigger price crash
Brutal fall in a market flooded with fish.
“The market is absolutely terrible. Prices are down by NOK 20 ($1.92/€1.68). There is nothing more to say,” an exporter told SalmonBusiness.
“Some customers in the processing industry have fish in storage, and if they don’t get low prices, they simply won’t buy. It’s dramatic. There’s a lot of fish, a lot of supply. We’re not alone. There’s more fish coming from the Faroe Islands, a lot from Scotland and Iceland too. They’re participating much more than before. So now we have more countries of origin, most with very strong growth. A lot of 5+ kilo fish.”
The mild and snowless winter has made an impact across the entire North Atlantic.
This one isn’t about salmon. It’s about how the news gets made
Cocktail of challenges
She is seeing NOK 70.00 ($6.72/€5.88) for 3–5 kilo salmon in Oslo.
“5+ kilo fish is trading under NOK 70.00 ($6.72/€5.88). We’re trying to buy from farmers at NOK 65.00 ($6.24/€5.46). Currency is no help right now, you can’t claw back a single krone there. Next week it’s May 1st, but many are going to slaughter on May 1st anyway. It’s a holiday harvest. There’s going to be a lot of fish at the Barcelona seafood fair. We want to sell a lot there.”
A cocktail of challenges is affecting the market.
“The sea temperature is 10 degrees Celsius, and we’re concerned about the lice situation — it could arrive earlier than usual. Chile is signaling more fish in the second half of the year. And the U.S. has tariffs,” she pointed out.
Collapse
“A complete collapse this week. Prices deep into the NOK 60s ($5.76/€5.04) next week,” another exporter commented.
The same message was repeated by all sources contacted today.
“The purchase price was NOK 90.00 ($8.64/€7.56) last Friday. Now I’d say it’s down NOK 23.00 ($2.21/€1.93) on 3–6 kilo fish. NOK 68.00 ($6.53/€5.71) for 3–6 kilo and NOK 65.00 ($6.24/€5.46) for 6+ kilo. And to be perfectly honest: we are not buying anything slaughtered after Tuesday. Even more fish is coming next week, and several customers are also closing on Friday because of a bridge day after May 1st,” said one trader.
“Supply is vastly larger than demand, and everyone has bigger fish than they had forecasted,” he summarized.
“We’re getting NOK 67.00–68.00 ($6.43–6.53/€5.62–5.71) for 3–6 kilo, NOK 63.00 ($6.05/€5.29) for 6–7 kilo, and NOK 60.00 ($5.76/€5.04) for 7+ kilo fish. That’s the market price right now. It’s a crash. Customers are being offered fish at €6.30 ($6.91) DDP (delivered duty paid) in Europe. Scottish salmon is even cheaper — €5.50 ($6.03),” an importer said.
SalmonBusiness gathers spot prices for salmon every Friday after lunch, tracking fish to be delivered the following week. This process involves contacting multiple entities in the value chain, including farmers, exporters, and importers. At least five independent sources are consulted, though they may not always be publicly disclosed.