Despite massive export volumes in the harvest, spot prices have been on the rise, especially in recent weeks. Prospects for a moderate supply growth, continued solid grocery sales and a recovery of the HoReCa segment and the air freight market give expectations of high prices next year.
“Contract prices have risen steadily upwards lately,” said Søren Martens, General Manager at Fish Pool. “The first half of 2022 traded at NOK 67.75/kg (€6.64/kg). The whole year is traded at NOK 63.25/kg (€6.20/kg). As you can see below, there is a firm buyer at this price, and greater buyer than seller interest.
The price level reflects optimism of historical dimensions, possibly colored by a fiery spot market now just before Christmas.
“NOK 63.75/kg (€6.25/kg) is higher than the spot prices for the peak year 2016. The year 2016 had an average spot price of NOK 63.13/kg (€6.19/kg), much due to the fact that total production of salmon fell by seven per cent,” Martens explained to SalmonBusiness.
“A weak Norwegian krone has contributed to the high prices for 2022, although growth in production is expected for 2022. Many buyers are unsure of the consequences of possible new closures, but must secure the cost of the fixed price contracts they enter into with their customers,” he pointed out.
“As usual, the farmers are optimistic, but some see the value in securing income for parts of the production. Then it is the art, as with all insurance, not to get upset if the house does not burn down (ie the spot prices will be higher than NOK 63.25/kg (€6.20/kg) in 2022) and say that it is more important to avoid the bottoms than to get all the tops, says Martens.
Below are the last ten Fish Pool trades with a price in NOK/kg and the number of tonnes per month secured.