Salmon prices held steady on Friday, but will the oversupply of large fish and slower demand continue to pressure prices this week?
The salmon market is navigating through a period of mixed signals. While some positive trends, like improved biological conditions, are offering hope, larger fish remain a concern, and supply pressures persist. With frozen inventories lingering and demand still unpredictable, the next few weeks could bring continued volatility. Here are five things we learned from last week’s price developments and what they suggest for the near future:
- Price Stability with a Downward Drift for Larger Fish
While the market has generally stabilized, large salmon (5kg+) are struggling. Prices for these fish have seen a slight decline, with many exporters feeling the strain. One exporter shared that 5+ kg salmon have been sold at a loss throughout the week, signaling challenges in this segment. Smaller fish, in contrast, are holding steady with slight price improvements. As the availability of large fish increases, will their prices continue to erode, or will a rebound take hold?
- Improved Biological Conditions Are Helping the Market
Despite the challenges with larger fish, there’s been a positive shift in biological conditions. Fish are growing better at sea, leading to more supply and healthier stocks. This has contributed to price stability for smaller fish, with the 2-3 kg range holding at NOK 76 ($6.84), and 3-4 kg at NOK 82 ($7.38). For now, it’s a much more optimistic outlook than last year. Will these positive biological trends support the market for smaller fish, or will larger segments continue to drag down the overall price?
- Frozen Inventories Are Keeping the Market Level
There’s a surplus of frozen salmon on hand, which means buyers are less pressured to purchase on the spot. This has given buyers more leverage in negotiations, as frozen inventories remain high and contracts are fewer compared to previous years. As a result, prices are being kept in check, despite the improved biology of the fish. Will the continued presence of these frozen stocks limit upward price movement, or will demand push the market to a tipping point?
- The Price Gap for 5kg+ Fish Remains Unsettling
Buyers are concerned about the ongoing price gap between smaller and larger fish. While smaller salmon are seeing reasonable price levels, the larger fish, particularly those over 6kg, are under significant pressure. The expectation is that prices for these fish will continue to fall in the coming weeks due to oversupply. As more large fish enter the market, will we see an even deeper price decline, or will sellers attempt to stabilize the segment?
- A March Price Increase Seems Unlikely
Looking ahead to the March contract, there’s little expectation of significant price increases. The Fish Pool contract for March is holding at €7,700 per tonne, translating to a price of around NOK 89.70 ($8.07) per kilo, which is essentially in line with current levels. Transport costs from Norwegian packing plants add a slight premium, but overall, there’s a sense that the market will not see major movements upwards in the short term. With the March contract already priced in, will we see any surprise price shifts, or is stability the most likely outcome?
In conclusion, as demand fluctuates and frozen stocks keep buyers cautious, the coming weeks could be challenging for exporters.
