New regulations in Chile, and biological and legal constraints in Norway are limiting growth

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However salmon production is growing at a steady pace according to the latest Rabobank report.

The forecast for salmon, which forms part of the Dutch bank’s latest Global Animal Protein Outlook, predicts that high prices are expected again and similar growth lie ahead for 2019.

The specialist food and agribusiness bank expected that growth would continue, although the industry is limited by legislation such as Chile’s descison to impose rules around fish pen densities.

“In 1H 2018, global salmon production grew quickly, although it slowed markedly in 2H 2018, resulting in overall annual growth of 5%. For 2019, our expectation is for growth to continue at a similar pace. Global supply is constrained by legislation in Norway and Chile, as well as persistent biological issues in Norway. Our expectation is for growth in salmon supply to fall below 5% after 2019.”

Salmon prices that reached a historical record-high in 2018 and will remain so going into 2019.

“In 1H 2018, salmon prices broke a new record, reaching NOK 80/kg. This peak has passed, and we expect the price range for 2019 to be NOK 55/kg to NOK 65/kg. Further, we expect salmon prices to be relatively volatile during 2019.”

Emerging markets will be a key driver in global demand.

“Positive development of global salmon demand is expected to continue despite high prices, growth in salmon demand was consistently firm in 2018. Salmon consumption per capita varies greatly around the world, and there are still potentially large markets that have yet to discover salmon or with the potential to further increase consumption. In 2019 and beyond, we expect salmon demand to increase most in immature and emerging markets, such as Spain, Italy, China, and the US.”