New salmon price drop heralds the lowest levels of the year

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Huge price gap in a sliding market.

“We are starting to approach the prices from two weeks ago. The recovery last week was not necessary,” a salmon exporter tells Salmon Business.

Plenty of access
The consensus of the industry sources Salmon Business talked to after lunch on Friday indicates the following range for next week’s salmon prices:

Facts

Salmon Business collects spot prices for salmon every Friday after lunch. These are fish to be delivered the following week. Here we contact several members of the value chain, including farmers, exporters and importers. We always have at least five independent sources, although not all sources are necessarily displayed on print. We vary which sources we use, and do not use the same sources each time.
    • 3-4 kilos NOK 45-48
    • 4-5 kilos NOK 46-50
    • 5-6 kilos NOK 49-52
    • 6+ kilos NOK 55-64

“It’s clear that the upswing we had last week was driven by optimism. There has been rich access as we have interpreted the market in Europe,” says another exporter.

“At the moment, there is not much that is conclusive, but one thing is,” he says, adding that big salmon, 6+ kilo, still gets a premium relative to other sizes. 

China
“This may indicate that market penetration for the 6+ size is still limited and it is the airfreight market that distinguishes it from other sizes. The market in the Far East, Hong Kong, Hanoi, or wherever the fish enter China from, will prefer to buy 5-6 (kilo) fish when the price differential is one and a half dollars,” he predicts.

“Today is the time for prices to spread a bit,” he sums up.

“I understand that prices are falling a little, yes. They are tipping just under NOK 50 (€5.40),” says an industrial buyer.

Freeze
“Now I hope the industry starts shopping.” There is little action yet, he adds.

Is it too early to buy fish to freeze it for Christmas?

“Should it be frozen, preferably larger fish, at least 4-5. One encounters quality problems by freezing 2-3 and 3-4 sizes.”

“The volume is agreed, but the price is not yet settled. That’s why the price is falling so much,” he says.