Reduced supply can give a price boost in the second half of 2019.
Earlier today the Norwegian Directorate of Fisheries estimated the losses, so far, from the algae attacks in Nordland and Troms, Northern Norway, to be over 10,000 tonnes of salmon. Much of the lost salmon is small fish, which were planned be fed up to higher harvesting weight.
That implies reduced volumes to slaughter and sell later this year.
“We estimate, with what we have heard so far, that it can be about the loss of 30,000 tonnes minimum for future harvest, so it is clear that this will have an impact on the supply side in Norway,” says Nordea Markets analyst Kolbjørn Giskeødegård to E24.
Nordea Markets’ estimates have so far been five per cent supply growth of Norwegian salmon this year, corresponding to about 70,000 tonnes. With a loss of 30,000 tonnes, the supply growth will be 40,000 tonnes, or just over three per cent.
“The question is whether it stops now, or whether it escalates further, because the more it escalates the greater the impact,” he says.
“It is tragic for the farmers concerned, but for the market as a whole, it contributes to better market balance in the second half of the year and a higher price in the market than would otherwise have been the case,” says Giskeødegård.