Price fall for next week

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Is the seasonal uptick before Christmas at risk?

The spot price continues to follow developments from last year, as an annual seasonal pattern with rising prices in November and December was broken and replaced by a fall.

“It’s about four to five kroner down. It has been a tough week,” says a trader to SalmonBusiness. 

Facts

SalmonBusiness collects spot prices for salmon every Friday after lunch. These are fish to be delivered the following week. Here we contact several members of the value chain, including farmers, exporters and importers. We always have at least five independent sources, although not all sources are necessarily displayed on print. We vary which sources we use, and do not use the same sources each time.

“There has been a lot of talk about the high Christmas prices. Perhaps those who buy have built stock,” he wonderedre. “There has also been some activity from Chile. When we get a volume increase, it will be the tough.”

He receives support from one of his export competitors.

“It’s been a bad week. We are seeing the same development as last year, when prices fell in both weeks 47 and 48,” he says.

“It’s between ten and 13 degrees (celcius) in the sea here south [of Norway]. The conditions in the sea are good. The fish are growing well,” he says in a quick analysis of the supply side, before starting a similar summary of the demand side: “The buyers have built a solid stock. There are few campaigns and few contracts have been entered into.”

“I do not get it,” he says, adding, “We must listen to the market. There are some signals we should take.”

The five industry sources SalmonBusiness talked to after lunch today show the following salmon prices, to the farmer, for delivery next week:

  • 3-4 kilograms NOK 45-46 (€ 4.7-4.8)
  • 4-5 kilograms NOK 47 (€4.8)
  • 5-6 kilograms NOK 48-50 (€4.8-5.1)
  • 6+ kilograms NOK 53-55 (€5.4-5.6)