Freezing goods could be a wild card this fall.
“Prices are steadily declining,” says an exporter, before elaborating: “What’s happening this year is that people are not freezing. It has become so damn expensive to put products in storage. Interest rates have gone up. People aren’t putting products in storage for six to seven months before the price drops further.”
“And next week, there is a holiday for Catholic countries on Thursday in Europe. Some factories will take both Thursday and Friday off. Prices are sliding down to NOK 67-70 ($6.16-$6.44/€5.70-€5.95) (to the farmer), but there aren’t significant differences from last week. One to two kroner. It will continue to slide down for a while, probably for a couple of months.”
“This year, freezing isn’t even a consideration. Most exporters have been burned badly by freezing fish. Of course, we believe in high prices for Christmas, but we’ll likely see prices in the 60s for the next few months. That’s what we have to expect,” he asserts.
Seasonal Fluctuations
“We have 3-4 percent more biomass in the sea than last year, which leads to MTB harvesting. This is not unusual.”
Seasonally, late summer and autumn typically show the year’s lowest salmon prices. Last year, prices bottomed out at this level, NOK 69 ($6.35/€5.87), while the year before, they dropped to NOK 56 ($5.15/€4.76). Both lows occurred in week 35.
“We expect it to be more like the year before last than last year,” says the exporter.
“We hear from customers that they are being offered contracts at around NOK 90 ($8.28/€7.65) to the farmer, for the entire next year,” he adds.
High Volume
Another exporter outlines a similar price range for fish to be delivered next week.
“NOK 66-70 ($6.08-$6.44/€5.61-€5.95). One to two kroner down on 3-5 kg and two to three kroner down on 5-6 kg.”
He is clear about the cause of the somewhat subdued price:
“Large [farmers] with a lot of volume. Plain and simple.”
At the same time, he also confirms that a holiday in Catholic countries will dampen purchases next week.
“Belgium, France, Slovenia, Poland, and Lithuania, which are major processing nations, have a public holiday on Thursday. The same goes for Italy and Spain, which take a lot of 5+ kg.”
He adds that the price for large salmon will remain at NOK 76-78 ($7.00-$7.18/€6.46-€6.63) for 6+ kg.
“We expect more volume from week 34. There might be more coming already towards the end of next week.”
Increasing Harvests
A third exporter sees slightly higher prices for the most traded weight classes.
“We have gone out with:
3-4 kg: NOK 67 ($6.16/€5.70)
4-5 kg: NOK 68 ($6.25/€5.78)
5-6 kg: NOK 72 ($6.62/€6.12)
“Some leftover fish and a stronger krone, so we should go down a bit on the industrial sizes. Also, slightly increasing harvests it seems.”
This is confirmed by a fourth exporter:
“In that range, yes, still pressure on prices,” writes an exporter in a text message.
However, a farmer is surprised by this price range, which he believes is too low.
“It’s actually a relatively nice week,” he says. “We have NOK 71-73 ($6.53-$6.72/€6.04-€6.20) for 4-5 kg and NOK 74-77 ($6.81-$7.08/€6.29-€6.55) for 5-6 kg. There’s little 6+ kg, so it will probably be around NOK 100 ($9.20/€8.50) for China air-packed. Somewhere in the 70s for the main sizes. It’s nice considering the volume we’ve seen and what we expect to come,” he says.
