Prices to rise up, up, up between Xmas and new year

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But the upswing in this year’s last week is taking place on modest volumes.

“We are sold out,” says a salesman at one of Norway’s largest fish farming companies to SalmonBusiness.

With only two days of packing next week, the activity is not the highest. But the prices are moving upwards.

Facts

SalmonBusiness collects spot prices for salmon every Friday after lunch. These are fish to be delivered the following week. Here we contact several members of the value chain, including farmers, exporters and importers. We always have at least five independent sources, although not all sources are necessarily displayed on print. We vary which sources we use, and do not use the same sources each time.

“I have more fish available next week than what I want to buy. The risk is far too high as we’re pretty sure that the price is going to go down in week 1,” says an exporter.

SalmonBusiness’ industrial sources outline the following ranges of salmon prices (FOB fish farmer) next week:

  • 3-4 kilograms NOK 57-60 (€5.7-6.0)
  • 4-5 kilograms NOK 59-62 (€5.9-6.2)
  • 5-6 kilograms NOK 61-65 (€6.1-6.5)
  • 6+ kilograms NOK 64-70 (€6.4-7.0)

For the first time since mid-September, the average price exceeds six euros. The price increase of the most-used weight classes, 3-6 kilograms, is up close to one euro.

“Not surprising,” says an exporter. “It will be automatic like this when it’s only two days of packing. We believe the price will be around NOK 60 the first week of 2019 as well. Same price in week 1 as in week 52. But then we believe the price will fall again.”

The reason for it lies in heavy supplies in cold stores.

“I guess 50,000 tonnes are in frozen stocks, in the EU and Norway. I’m talking to customers who have fish in stock until April. They do not need to buy a single fish. I do not think we will get a higher price next year than this year. There is no reason,” he believes.