A Break From the Usual Seasonal Pattern.
“When Trump announces tariffs, the market gets nervous. People hold off on buying, using their frozen inventories instead. It came to a standstill on Wednesday,” a trader told SalmonBusiness.
“We’re seeing better biological conditions, increased feed consumption, and lower production losses,” he said. “Prices have dropped by about NOK 10 ($0.89/€0.85) across all sizes. On average, we are selling at a loss of NOK 10 per kilo.”
Prices Adjusted Downward
For next week, the trader forecasts the following prices for farmers:
- 2-3 kg: NOK 66-67 ($5.87-5.96/€5.61-5.70)
- 3-4 kg: NOK 74-75 ($6.59-6.68/€6.29-6.38)
- 4-5 kg: NOK 77 ($6.85/€6.55)
- 5-6 kg: NOK 80 ($7.12/€6.80)
- 6+ kg: NOK 84 ($7.48/€7.14)
“There is clearly too much fish. There’s a huge amount of unsold inventory. Fish Pool prices have dropped significantly. Biomass levels are 11% higher in Chile and about 10% higher in Norway,” he pointed out.
A Price Drop That Took the Market by Surprise
“Everyone expected high prices in the first half of the year but didn’t secure contracts. When customers saw the high expected prices for Norwegian salmon, they switched to other products and reduced shelf space for salmon. There are extremely few fixed-price contracts. No one wanted to sign contracts because everyone believed prices would be NOK 120-130 ($10.68-11.57/€10.20-11.05). So now, everything is being sold on the spot market. There’s a certain logic to this, and it’s partially self-inflicted,” he said.
“We offered farmers over NOK 90 ($8.01/€7.65) per kilo for the entire year, but that wasn’t good enough. Now, prices will be significantly lower, I can promise you.”
A Tough Market
“There’s a bit more resistance now, but the fish is still moving. We’re seeing good volumes of superior quality fish. The whitefish market has also dropped significantly this week,” an exporter said.
Others see an even weaker picture.
“This week has been a struggle. Prices crashed completely. The major producers have a lot of fish. They offer us one price and then offer five kroner less to Europe. That’s at least a NOK 12 ($1.07/€1.02) drop,” another exporter said.
“I expect prices next week to be NOK 72-73 ($6.41-6.50/€6.12-6.21) for 3-4 kg, NOK 74-75 ($6.59-6.68/€6.29-6.38) for 4-5 kg, and NOK 77-78 ($6.85-6.94/€6.55-6.64) for 5-6 kg. And to be honest, that’s not enough. Prices will drop even further next week.”
“Processors froze large volumes in the autumn to secure supply for the first half of the year. Now, they’re thawing their frozen stock because they don’t want to be left holding it. That creates a double effect. Right now, there’s so much fish—and even more is coming. Some producers who usually process at one plant will be using 3-4 different plants next week,” he said.
Weak Demand in Overseas Markets
“China and Asia have no demand. A price drop for 5+ kg fish wouldn’t surprise me at all,” he added.
A producer confirmed that prices have fallen sharply from last week’s levels in the upper NOK 80s ($7.12-7.99/€6.80-7.65).
“We’ve been offered NOK 79 ($7.04/€6.72) for 3-4 kg and NOK 84 ($7.48/€7.14) for 4-5 kg next week. Unsold fish is now trading in the NOK 70s ($6.23-7.04/€5.95-6.72). Today, the unsold fish is at NOK 76-80 ($6.76-7.12/€6.46-6.80),” he said.
“There’s a lot of pressure in the market right now, in Norway, Scotland, the Faroe Islands, and Iceland. It’s a supply issue, not a weak market. Biomass in the sea is still quite high—for now. But it will need to be cleared out soon,” he noted.
A buyer described the market as extremely challenging.
“People are in limbo,” he said, confirming that he had heard prices in the low NOK 70s ($6.23-6.50/€5.95-6.21) for 3-4 kg fish.
“That farmers are accepting these prices… it’s a NOK 10 ($0.89/€0.85) drop. Like most others, we’ve been sitting on unsold fish,” he added.
He confirmed that many salmon buyers had been preparing for a seasonal price increase, but instead, they are seeing an unexpected decline.
“It’s like a football team that plays in the Premier League and suddenly finds itself in the second division. I don’t know what to say.”
