Rising salmon prices: “Have we seen the bottom?”

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With six weeks left until Christmas, the market is tightening.

“44 kroner (EUR 4.1) for 3-5 kg, 45 kroner (EUR 4.2) for 5-6 kg and 46 kroner (4.3) for 6+ kg. That is what we go out with,” said a fish farmer to SalmonBusiness. “We have not sold anything yet though,” he added.

“I am surprised that we have rising prices with that euro. The market has been good at getting Horeca goods into stores.”

The euro is trading after lunch on Friday at 10.82 against Norwegian kroner.

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“Max 42 kroner (EUR 3.9),” countered an exporter. “The farmers want more though. The market offers nothing more. If one is to continue to increase the volumes, then things are not going well,” he said.

“43/44/45 kroner delivered to Oslo,” wrote an exporter in an SMS to SalmonBusiness.

Facts

Every Friday after lunch, SalmonBusiness report spot prices for salmon. These are fish to be delivered the following week. We contact several links in the value chain, including farmers, exporters and importers, and always have at least five independent sources, although not all sources are necessarily displayed. We vary the sources we use and do not use the same sources each time.

All sources SalmonBusiness has spoken to on Friday believe there is a chance of a price increase.

“It is only natural that it begins to rise towards Christmas. It has been driven a lot by retail,” said a fish farmer.

Tight
“We are at 45, 46, 47 kroner (EUR 4.2, 4.3 and 4.4) now. There are several interested in that area. So this will be an relatively tight Friday. And that is with a few percent lower exchange rate in a 10-14 day period. I do not know where it goes from here, but see a boost of around five kroner (EUR 0.5) into week 47.”

A price increase before Christmas is expected and an annual recurring seasonal pattern.

“In our market, a significant price increase is expected towards Christmas,” said Fish Pool manager Søren Martens.

Higher income
“Estimate for average spot price 2020 is NOK 56.45/kg (EUR 5.2). In 2021, the contract is now traded at NOK 57.00 (EUR 5.3) so it is possible to secure a higher income for next year than this year’s spot prices,” he said.

But now it is primarily half-year and full-year contracts that apply.

“The first half of 2021 is traded at NOK 60.00 (EUR 5.5) and the second half at NOK 54.00 (EUR 5.0). One can now secure six kroner/kg (EUR 0.6) more for the second half of 2021 than the approximately 48 kroner/kg (EUR 4.4) that will be average prices in the second half of 2020,” said Martens.