The first surge of the pre-Christmas shopping season is here.
“The larger sizes have really taken off,” a farmer told SalmonBusiness. “But we don’t have much big fish,” he added.
He provided the following price estimates for salmon to be delivered in the coming week:
- 2-3 kg: NOK 67-68 ($6.03-6.12/€5.70-5.78)
- 3-4 kg: NOK 78-79 ($7.02-7.11/€6.63-6.72)
- 4-5 kg: NOK 84-85 ($7.56-7.65/€7.14-7.23)
“These prices apply to the right markets. We don’t have much of these sizes, or 5-6 kg fish either,” he remarked.
Shock Effect
This marks a significant price increase compared to last Friday. The farmer explained the cause of the rise:
“Lower export volumes combined with bad weather create a shock effect. Average weights are far below normal—this has been the case for a few weeks now. I think many have harvested so much that it will take time to hit their maximum allowed biomass (MTB) threshold. There are high expectations from December onward. You wouldn’t harvest fish now if you could sell it later at 200-300 grams heavier.”
“I think it’s mainly jellyfish that are driving the harvest of smaller fish. We’re not harvesting anything unusual—it’s lice that dictate which fish we take out—but it might only be a matter of time before jellyfish take over,” he speculated.
“What I haven’t understood is why prices were so low after we wrapped up the major export push. Moderate export volumes and bad weather have likely caused more cancellations than usual.”
Panic
“I’m hearing prices are rising a lot,” said an exporter. “Early on, I heard NOK 77-78 ($6.93-7.02/€6.55-6.63). Then came the awful weather and lots of cancellations. By early today, I thought it would end at NOK 80-plus/minus ($7.20/€6.80). It’s now around NOK 80-83/84 ($7.20-7.48/€6.80-7.14). The prices got a boost. It’s a bit panicked. There’s a lot of available freight capacity up north.”
“This is the first week when volumes should start moving before Christmas, but reduced harvesting has pulled things in both directions. There won’t be any price drop before Christmas—that’s not something to expect. Prices are trending upward,” he concluded.
Industry sources
All industry sources pointed to a notable price increase.
“There’s been a lot of trouble today due to bad weather in the north. Many cancellations. Terrible weather canceled a lot of trucks both Thursday and Friday. This drives prices up. We think prices will increase by NOK 5 ($0.45/€0.43) due to the weather. It’s the shortage of fish that’s causing it,” said a trader.
“Especially a rise in prices for 4 kg and above—not so much for 2-3 kg,” he added, listing the following prices:
- 2-3 kg: NOK 62 ($5.58/€5.27)
- 3-4 kg: NOK 73 ($6.57/€6.21)
- 4-5 kg: NOK 77-78 ($6.93-7.02/€6.55-6.63)
- 5-6 kg: NOK 84-85 ($7.56-7.65/€7.14-7.23)
- 6+ kg: NOK 105 ($9.45/€8.93)
“Nothing is set in stone, but those are the prices we’ve heard. There are very large variations,” he explained.
Rising
“I think prices will simply go higher,” said another source. He provided these prices:
- 2-3 kg: NOK 64 ($5.76/€5.44)
- 3-4 kg: NOK 76 ($6.84/€6.46)
- 4-5 kg: NOK 79-80 ($7.11-7.20/€6.72-6.80)
- 5-6 kg: NOK 85 ($7.65/€7.23)
- 6+ kg: NOK 105 ($9.45/€8.93)
Another source sent a message listing prices by weight class (from 3-4 kg to 6+):
“77/79/87/115” (NOK).
- 77 ($6.93/€6.55)
- 79 ($7.11/€6.72)
- 87 ($7.83/€7.40)
- 115 ($10.35/€9.78)
SalmonBusiness collects spot prices for salmon every Friday afternoon. These are prices for fish to be delivered the following week. We reach out to various parts of the value chain, including farmers, exporters, and importers. A minimum of five independent sources are used, although not all are cited directly in the publication. We rotate the sources to ensure variety and avoid relying on the same contributors every week.
