Weather plays little role in price formation this time around.
“Suddenly, everyone was left with fish. Processors are being offered a lot of fish that remained unsold. That gets pushed into next week. The price is plus or minus NOK 80.00 ($7.20/€6.88),” a trader told SalmonBusiness on Friday about the first week of December’s salmon prices.
“The 5-6 kg size has come down quite a bit,” he said. “Prices are NOK 77-78 ($6.93-$7.02/€6.62-€6.70) for 3-4 kg, NOK 80.00 ($7.20/€6.88) for 4-5 kg, and NOK 82-83 ($7.38-$7.47/€7.05-€7.14) for 5-6 kg. You always want to lower prices, but there’s a lot to move. I think it’ll stay around the NOK 80.00 ($7.20/€6.88) mark.”
Low-Pressure System
The trader noted the severe storm sweeping across Northern Norway, where several mountain passes, including parts of the E6 highway, have been closed in the country’s three northernmost counties. However, the weather has not significantly impacted prices or logistics.
“The low-pressure system passes through quite quickly. It’s quite far north. I don’t think much fish has been lost,” he said.
As a result, a price increase that has lasted three consecutive weeks has now come to a halt. The description of the price drop has been echoed by multiple sources.
“We’re talking about a drop of NOK 6-8 ($0.54-$0.72/€0.52-€0.69). It varies by size,” an exporter said, citing the following prices to producers:
- 3-4 kg: NOK 74-75 ($6.66-$6.75/€6.36-€6.45)
- 4-5 kg: NOK 77-78 ($6.93-$7.02/€6.62-€6.70)
- 5-6 kg: NOK 83-84 ($7.47-$7.56/€7.14-€7.22)
- 6+ kg: NOK 105-110 ($9.45-$9.90/€9.03-€9.46)
“There’s too much supply, and the industry has started to slow down. They need significantly smaller quantities. The fish has to get to the stores before Christmas, of course. This happens every year at the end of November,” the exporter noted.
Sales and Logistics
“Significant harvests have been announced for next week,” he added.
Logistics issues related to the storm have not been a concern.
“The fish is there. We haven’t had a single kilogram canceled because of it. A fair amount has been sold. This is the price customers are being offered. There’s some fish left over from this week.”
Others see even lower prices.
“The market is currently saying NOK 73, 77, and 78 ($6.57, $6.93, and $7.02/€6.28, €6.62, and €6.70) for sizes 3-6 kg,” another trader said.
“But can you buy at those levels?”
“No purchases yet,” he admitted.
Short-Lived Decline
The price decline is expected to be both brief and temporary, with expectations of prices strengthening into December. The forward price for December on Fish Pool is currently NOK 86.50 ($7.79/€7.44), delivered Oslo.
SalmonBusiness gathers spot prices for salmon every Friday after lunch, tracking fish to be delivered the following week. This process involves contacting multiple entities in the value chain, including farmers, exporters, and importers. At least five independent sources are consulted, though they may not always be publicly disclosed.
