Salmon shortage gives new price hike

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Demand running faster than supply.

“There are some who talk about that it can go up to 75 kroner (EUR 7.5). 3-4 lags a bit, but 5+ will be a reference price,“ said a trader to SalmonBusiness.

He said there are several reasons behind the price increase:

Facts

Every Friday after lunch, SalmonBusiness report spot prices for salmon. These are fish to be delivered the following week. We contact several links in the value chain, including farmers, exporters and importers, and always have at least five independent sources, although not all sources are necessarily displayed. We vary the sources we use and do not use the same sources each time.

“Less fish are being harvested, a lot of problems at the processing plants with covid – and poor weather. There are many things. It is mainly that a lot of fish has been harvested, so it will be a period of less fish. It’s natural. And then there are a number of wounded fish, (so-called) production fish, and that reduces the export share,“ he said and pointed to problems with winter wounds.

Available
“Then it will be less available for export. There are many indications that there will not be such good access to what can be exported.“

“68, 72, 75 kroner (EUR 6.8, 7.2, 7.5) (for 3-6 kg). We sold some trucks on that earlier today. We now know that we can sell 3-4 kg for 71 kroner (EUR 7.1), 4-5 kg for 73 kroner (EUR 7.3) and 5-6 kg for 75 kroner (EUR 7.5). 6+ is 80+ (EUR 8). It can be the whole scale,“ said a fish farmer.

This means a price range at the very top of what has been recorded during the winter in modern times. One has to go all the way back to the mid-1980s to find higher average prices.

“Chinese New Year on Tuesday takes down demand there, but low average weights in Norway and Chile give less supply of 6+ than it usually is. The demand is a bit variable. For the season, there is a good market for 6+. Greater demand than supply,“ he said, and added: “At least there is nothing unsold from this week.“

No queue
Others see somewhat lower prices:

“Slightly upwards on 3-5 kg, more equal to price for 3-6 kg. 4+ is the same price really. 6+ is maybe a little lower than 4-5. There is so much 6+ available,“ said an exporter and referred to farmgate prices between NOK 68 and 70 (EUR 6.8-7.0).

“It happens every year that there are more 6+ than we have demand for. What we are left with is 6+. You can find trucks in Oslo for 70 kroner (EUR 7) today. It has been the most difficult at the end of the week.“

“But these are fantastic prices. I hope it holds. Customers are not exactly in line to buy fish. It’s a little scary with such high prices. It’s high, I have to say. When we’re over seven euros, customers struggle with their prices further,“ he said.

A buyer is waiting and hoping for a favorable start to today’s trade:

“Right now it’s completely quiet, I feel. The big fish seems to be getting a reduction from the air cargo markets that were last week. My gut feeling says that it is pushing upwards, at least on the industry sizes (3-6 kg).“