Seasonal price rise on hold, as price expected to fall next week

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Salmon customers have prepared well for the seasonal price hike.

“The price increase last week simply stopped some sales,” a buyer told to SalmonBusiness.

There are clear expectations of a price fall, but the market has not settled yet.

“I do not believe in five kroner. But there is a correction, yes,” he added.

“We have not traded yet. There is still focus on fish that is not sold. It is at least five kroner below what was traded last Friday,” said a processor’s buyer. 

Facts

SalmonBusiness collects spot prices for salmon every Friday after lunch. These are fish to be delivered the following week. Here we contact several members of the value chain, including farmers, exporters and importers. We always have at least five independent sources, although not all sources are necessarily displayed on print. We vary which sources we use, and do not use the same sources each time.

It’s November, and usually the seasonal rise in spot prices will show up at this time. Fish Pool’s forward price for December shows NOK 66.80/kilogram, which indicates massive optimism.

“It is perhaps surprising that there is resistance in the market as late as we are now. But on the buyer side, there are few contracts and they are nervous (for price increases).”

Small fish are especially tough to sell today.

“5- is sharply down. 5+ is more stable,” said a trader. “There are some rumors about the slaughter of ISA fish next week, which stops early buying.”

He said that he thought there are several reasons why the expected price rise is postponed.

“The customers have made arrangements to withstand the price increase that Norwegian players talk about in connection with low feed sales and biomass. They have built a buffer. Several of our customers have built stock and are not so dependent on fresh fish.”

He has also noted that there are few contracts in the market.

“They are flexible,” he says about the customer side.

SalmonBusiness’ industrial sources refer to the following price level (to farmers) for delivery next week:

  • 3-4 kilos 49-51 kroner (€5.1-5.3)
  • 4-5 kilos 50-53 kroner (€5.2-5.5)
  • 5-6 kilos 54-56 kroner (€5.6-5.8)
  • 6+ kilos in the mid 60’s (€6.8-6.9)