They have dominated the Oslo Stock Exchange over the past six years. But this year, salmon stocks are lagging on the OSEBX (Oslo Stock Exchange Benchmark Index).
Only one salmon share has increased more than the total index so far this year. And it’s not even Norwegian. The Scottish Salmon Company has recorded a 15.9 per cent growth in value – well over five percentage points over its total index.
The rest of the pack lags behind the average return on the Oslo Stock Exchange this year. In fact, only three shares have risen in price this year. The rest have fallen back.
They have done so a lot, for many years, and have obviously already priced in into spacious future optimism.
So even though the salmon price has started the year strongly, and in line with the previous three years, it has not been enough to continue pumping up share prices.
The rise has been as expected. And barely enough.
However, Sparebank1 Markets salmon analyst Tore A. Tønseth expects a new twist on the salmon price in the near future.
“We expect prices to climb towards NOK 70s next 2-3 weeks, before the spot price falls and flattens out in the low-mid NOK 60s going into May,” he wrote in a financial statment over the weekend.
“The spring is typically a period with many holidays in Norway, and combined with limited biomass in the 2017 autumn and 2018 spring generation, we are not surprised if the salmon price reaches very high levels in this period. We do not expect to see price pressure from Norway before September-October, as the larger 2018 autumn generation kicks in,” Tønseth continued.
He has a BUY recommendation of six out of nine shares in the salmon farming sector on the Oslo Stock Exchange.