Lower contract volumes and improved growing conditions drive salmon prices down.
Better biological conditions are improving fish quality and increasing supply.
“Prices are dropping. There is too much fish in the 1-5 kg size range. 6+ kg has held up reasonably well. Chinese New Year is mostly over, so they are starting to take in (larger) fish towards the final week,” explained an exporter to SalmonBusiness on Friday.
He reported the following salmon prices to farmers for the coming week:
- 1-2 kg: NOK 60 ($5.22/€5.10)
- 2-3 kg: NOK 73 ($6.35/€6.21)
- 3-4 kg: NOK 80 ($6.96/€6.80)
- 4-5 kg: NOK 81-82 ($7.04-7.13/€6.89-6.97)
- 5-6 kg: NOK 86-87 ($7.48-7.57/€7.31-7.40)
- 6+ kg: NOK 95-100 ($8.27-8.70/€8.08-8.50)
Fewer contracts
“The problem now is that there is a surplus of unsold fish from this week. Demand is slightly lower, possibly because fewer contracts are driving the market. There is also less ‘production fish’ (fish with wounds or other quality issues). That means more superior-quality fish is entering the market, which drives the price down. I believe this will remain the case. Prices will be more balanced than last year. Back then, the market was frenzied,” he explained.
“The winter ulcer vaccine appears to be working well, and there is minimal jellyfish damage. Several factors are positively impacting biomass levels. I estimate that the biomass is 5-7% higher than last year.”
“It seems there are fewer contracts, fewer planned fixed sales, and more spot-market fish. The share of fish sold on contract is incredibly low, which is not good for price stability. There is plenty of fish—more than the market can absorb at a reasonable pace,” he continues.
Spot prices remain unsettled
This means that the spot price has yet to stabilize after a sharp decline from its peak at the turn of the year.
Temporary decline?
A trader confirms the farmer prices for 3-6 kg salmon at NOK 80-87 ($6.96-7.57/€6.80-7.40) per kg.
- “Yes. 2-3 kg is at NOK 70-71 ($6.09-6.17/€5.95-6.04). 6+ kg is at NOK 98 ($8.53/€8.33),” he adds.
A buyer also confirms these price levels.
- “Yes, but I haven’t made any purchases yet. No one wants to commit before 3:30 p.m. or later,” he says.
Market expectations
Most market participants believe the price drop is temporary.
In the futures market, Fish Pool’s February contract is trading at €8,970 per tonne ($9,710 per tonne), which equates to NOK 105.30 ($9.16/€8.95) per kg, delivered Oslo.
