The volatility continues as salmon price falls back

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After the peak last Friday, where the average landed just under EUR 7/kg, next week’s salmon price is set to fall back.

“Sharp price drop on fish that has been sold from Wednesday this week. People are talking about 10-12 kroner (EUR 1-1.2) compared to last Friday. But where it lands next week, I do not have a complete overview of,” said a buyer to SalmonBusiness.

“I hear that it’s falling. But do not know where it has settled. I hear there is talk of prices around 60 kroner (EUR 6),” said an importer.

Facts

Every Friday after lunch, SalmonBusiness report spot prices for salmon. These are fish to be delivered the following week. We contact several links in the value chain, including farmers, exporters and importers, and always have at least five independent sources, although not all sources are necessarily displayed. We vary the sources we use and do not use the same sources each time.

Currency
Several sources point to falling EUR/NOK exchange rates as a challenge.

“The last two or three trucks we have sold this week are at 60 kroner (EUR 6). The euro is not going in the right direction. But we have very little fish, we must not sell now,” said a farmer who refered to target farmgate prices between EUR 6-6.7 depending on size.

“7+ kg can be sold at 70 kroner plus (EUR 7), but it is not the one we have the most of,” he added.

“I just bought a truck in the mid 60’s. 5-6 kg FCA fish farmer. And a 7+ at 70 kroner FCA farmer,” said an exporter.

In any case, this means a significant fall from the levels achieved last Friday.

Swings
“This is Russian roulette. Prices fluctuate ten kroner, up and down, all the time,” said another exporter. “It is becoming quite a big frustration. The price will be raised up to 62 kroner (EUR 6.2) for 3-4 kg in Oslo on Friday, and then you will sell at a loss of ten kroner (one euro) on Monday. It’s quite tough.”

“This has been the case for five or six weeks. There is too little free fish for the medium-sized exporters, we are fighting for the same fish. And then comes Monday and we have to sell at a loss.”

“It is not a market at 65 kroner (EUR 6.5), it is a market at 55-60 kroner (EUR 5.5-6.0),” he said. “And now the euro has fallen to 9.93 [vs NOK]. At 55 kroner, the price paid to farmer is actually six euros. People do not think that we have had a high exchange rate for quite some time. Right now it’s a little complicated.”

Contract
“When a price can fluctuate two euros in two weeks, people start to wonder.”

He emphasized that contract prices are still well below the spot market.

“5.50-5.70 euros is where the contract level is in the market. So it is a mismatch on what the fish has been sold on, versus what the spot price has been lately. It’s not good for us, and not good for our customers. One has to build markets. Customers must have stability to be able to market the products,” the exporter pointed out.