There will be a 30 per-cent growth in production over the next six years, but only a fraction will come from land-based

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Open net-pen salmon farms in the sea will dominate growth for quite some time, predicts Bakkafrost.

The world’s salmon production will increase by 645,000 tonnes, corresponding to just under four per cent annually, until 2025, Bakkafrost’s management said it predicted in a CMD (capital market day) presentation today for customers, investors, banks, at home in the Faroe Islands.

Source: Bakkafrost

Moderate growth
This means a supply growth well below the historical demand growth of six to eight per cent, which should indicate continued high salmon prices during the period.

Norway will account for most of the production growth, namely 359,000 tonnes, according to the presentation material from the company.

The much-discussed, and to a varying extent, funded, land-based aquaculture business will not make any significant impact on the market balance. Only 53,000 tonnes of salmonids will be harvested from land-based plants in 2025, Bakkafrost believes.

A little from Chile
The world’s second largest salmon farmer, Chile, will not increase production significantly during the period. Only 77,000 tonnes, corresponding to an increase of 1.7 per-cent annually, Bakkafrost’s management believes Chilean farmers will increase over the next six years.

For its own sake, Bakkafrost estimates an increase in harvest volume of as much as 70 per cent by 2023. This increase will to a large extent be based on the production/release of larger smolt, better utilization of licenses and the development of new production areas.