‘This is what happens when politicians don’t understand the industry they’re regulating’

The Canadian Federal Government has published its transition plan to end open net-pen salmon farming in British Columbia. There will be no farming in the sea after 2029.

In the intermediate period, a transition to land-based production will take place. The plan outlines how the government intends to move forward with support for First Nation communities and workers that depend on the industry.

So, that means a transition to rather remote areas on Vancouver Island, if it is going to benefit the same First Nation communities.

Salmon production in BC is at present 66,000 tons per annum. This means an investment into RAS technology of CAD 2 billion. What size are these units going to be? It will obviously not be one big unit of 66,000 tons annual production. It will more likely be in the region of 5-10,000 tons units. Or let’s for ease say an average of 6,600 tons. This will then make 10 units spread around Vancouver Island.

The land requirements for each will be 10 hectares or 25 acres. The Transition Plan document is very vague in relation to who is going to pay for this transition. There is mentioned that there will be support for the First Nation communities, but not quantified.

Read more: Danish RAS consultancy wins award for best food tech company

Under a section in the report of what questions need to be asked in identifying economic support for the use on innovative and clean aquaculture technology is: “What is the role of industry in contributing to innovation in B.C. aquaculture?” What industry? Well, that is of course a good question.

Another good question (not in the Transition report, but my own question): will the existing net pen companies be compensated for their required withdrawal from the sea? I don’t think so. Can one expect that these same companies, i.e., Mowi, Grieg Seafood and Cermaq will the ones in investing in land-based RAS production? Probably not, that is the same as admitting that it is the right way to go. What will then happen in other salmon farming countries?

So, who is going to invest and what about the timeline? For an investor to plan, maybe having to raise money, to find suitable sites and site assessments, to apply for permissions will take at least 2-3 years. It will then take another three years to build the plant and another 3 years before a project is up to full production. That is 8-9 years ahead. And that is if they start right now. This means there is going to be a gap in BC salmon production of 4-5 years, i.e., no salmon from 2025 till 2030.

The question may even be: “will there at all be a salmon production on Vancouver Island in the future?” Will these new facilities not be placed elsewhere? It is not rational to build RAS out in remote areas. We have already high CAPEX and OPEX, which makes it difficult competitive wise compared to net pen production. RAS has higher production costs and carbon footprint, which to some extent can be compensated for by locating production facilities closer to the markets.

There is of course the option instead of RAS production to produce salmon in closed containment systems in the sea. But we know very little about the economics of that production mode. One does not hear much from that sector. It seems that these systems still need a lot of more research and developments before production can be implemented.

It will be much further down the road than for RAS production. In the transition report it is stated: “The aim of the Canadian Government is a successful transition for British Columbia to become a world leader in innovative and clean aquaculture technology, including within the closed containment salmon aquaculture sector. It ensures that the sector remains competitive and makes B.C. a target for domestic and international investment”.

One can of course always hope. But I am a little worried about First Nation communities on Vancouver Island.