Tighter market expected in the second half of the year as Kontali estimates only two percent supply growth in 2021

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After strong harvest volumes in the first four months of the year, negative growth is expected throughout the year.

The consulting company Kontali Analyse expects a global supply growth for salmon of two percent in 2021 and six percent in 2022. The growth in the first quarter of 2021 has been higher than expected due to higher harvest volumes in both Norway and Chile.

“Growth for the rest of 2021 is now expected to be negative by 1.2 per cent, compared with 0.2 per cent previously. In Norway, the 2022 growth estimate has been increased to four percent from three percent, while Chile has been reduced to 11 from 13 percent. We are in line with Kontali on the 2021 estimate, while expecting only five percent growth in 2022 as a result of somewhat lower estimates in both Norway and Chile ».

This is what salmon analyst Carl-Emil Kjølås Johannessen in the investment bank Pareto Securities wrote in an analysis according to TDN Finans.

At the same time as the supply side is being tightened, the number of reservations at previously Corona-closed restaurants is increasing, which may indicate a stronger growth in demand. In line with more and more vaccinations over the summer, this picture is expected to strengthen further.

The seafood index rose than the rest of the Oslo Stock Exchange on Monday. While the total index rose by 0.6 percent in today’s trading, the seafood index saw a 1.1 percent gain.