Analyst: New US tariffs could trigger collapse in salmon prices.
The new US tariff regime on seafood imports could have dramatic consequences for salmon producers, according to a research note from Carnegie Investment Bank published Thursday.
Citing the risk of collapsing prices and weakened demand, analyst Henrik Knutsen warned of a potential 40–50 percent drop in EBIT estimates across major listed salmon farming companies if the US tariffs are implemented as announced.
“Norway will have a tariff rate of 15 percent, while Chile (and other salmon farming countries) will face a baseline of ten percent. In addition, the EU will have a tariff of 20 percent. With the US accounting for 25 percent of global consumption, this is as bad as it gets,” Knutsen wrote in the note, first reported by iLaks.
The weighted impact of the tariffs across global suppliers could translate into a theoretical 12–14 percent average levy on US-bound salmon. While Chile is likely to gain market share due to its lower tariff, excess Norwegian volume may be diverted to Europe and Asia, both of which are seen as lower-paying and more saturated markets.
Knutsen forecasts that if prices fall to €6.3/kg in 2025 — down modestly from Carnegie’s current €7.0/kg estimate — this could wipe out most or all EBIT for high-cost producers such as Grieg Seafood (GSF), with negative net results likely.
The US is currently the single largest market for Norwegian salmon by value. A sudden decline in US demand would exacerbate supply pressures in the EU market, particularly during the high-volume autumn period.
“Between 2017–2022, prices bottomed out at around €5.2/kg during the fall. We may be on our way back to those levels,” Knutsen wrote.