Fishing and aquaculture face uncertain future as UK launches marine tipping point study.
A new £4.25 million research project led by the University of East Anglia (UEA) will investigate climate-related tipping points in marine ecosystems, with a focus on potential risks and opportunities for the UK’s fishing and aquaculture industries.
The project, known as ‘Forecasting Tipping points In Marine Biogeochemistry and Ecosystem Responses’ (TiMBER), has been awarded funding under the UK Government’s Advanced Research + Invention Agency (ARIA) initiative, which aims to support scientific and technological breakthroughs.
TiMBER will study the North Atlantic, which is considered vulnerable to physical climate tipping points. While the potential for large-scale ecosystem shifts remains poorly understood, historical examples—such as the collapse of cod stocks in the North West Atlantic during the 1980s—highlight the socio-economic risks posed by sudden environmental changes.
Professor Corinne Le Quéré, Royal Society Research Professor of Climate Change Science at UEA and lead R&D Creator of TiMBER, said:
“Given the serious implications of tipping points, our research is both timely and necessary. By helping the UK anticipate, prepare for and respond to marine changes, TiMBER will support sustainable and resilient fisheries.”
The project is a collaboration between UEA, Cefas, the National Oceanography Centre (NOC), the Institute of Computing for Climate Science (ICCS) at the University of Cambridge, and the Scottish Association for Marine Science (SAMS). It is one of 27 international teams awarded funding under ARIA’s £81 million Forecasting Tipping Points programme, a five-year effort to develop early warning systems for climate-related tipping points.
TiMBER will develop an Ocean Systems Model integrating new and existing data, along with AI methods, to assess the risks of tipping points in marine ecosystems and biogeochemistry. The research will identify early warning indicators for sentinel marine species—those particularly sensitive to environmental change—and provide recommendations for monitoring networks and climate adaptation strategies.
Dr Bryony Townhill, Principal Climate Change Scientist at Cefas, said:
“This project provides a great opportunity to combine and build on our modelling tools to predict potential risks in the North Atlantic. By bringing together expertise across marine ecosystem and biogeochemistry research, we hope to translate findings into practical advice to support the fisheries and aquaculture sectors in adapting to climate change.”
The grant includes £1.62 million ($2.05 million) allocated to UEA, marking the university’s first award under the ARIA initiative. The project is set to begin on April 1, 2025, subject to final contract negotiations.
