Salmon’s price puzzle: What the first post-tariff numbers reveal.
Tariffs are the major talking point in the salmon market, as in society at large these days. But even though many in the financial community have predicted that salmon will be Norway’s big loser in the ongoing trade war, there is little movement in the spot market so far.
“There’s uncertainty. Too much fish around, and now tariffs on top. It’s not easy to find the right price. But prices are clearly slipping a bit. Not by much,” an exporter told SalmonBusiness.
Negative tone
“‘Prodfisk’ [production fish, i.e. fish with wounds or damage that must be trimmed before export – ed.] has dropped sharply. It’s trading in the 50s [NOK]. Just a couple of weeks ago it was above NOK 70 ($6.65/€5.95). There’s a lot of negativity,” he said.
Earlier today, Bloomberg and Reuters reported that China will introduce an additional 34 percent tariff on all US goods from April 10. The EU is also expected to respond to President Trump’s tariff measures.
“The US will end up as the big loser here. They’re trying to export their goods too,” the exporter said.
On the salmon price, he added:
“Just under NOK 70 ($6.65/€5.95) for 3–4 kilo fish, and there’s not much difference between 3–4 and 6+ kilos.”
Balanced market
Another exporter confirmed similar price levels.
“Same level as last Friday, around NOK 70 ($6.65/€5.95) for 3–6 kilos. It seems we’re moving from losses to breaking even for exporters. Some got 5+ kilo fish for as low as NOK 65 ($6.18/€5.53). There’s a lot of big fish. It’s under pressure, obviously,” he said.
Others believe the tariff issue is overstated.
“It mostly looks like fear and psychology are driving things. And some buyers have taken full advantage of that,” a frustrated salmon farmer told SalmonBusiness.
“Where prices will go next week, I don’t know,” he added, before reasoning further: “The salmon price bottomed out on Wednesday. Big fish traded at NOK 65 ($6.18/€5.53), but prices have gone up since. 3–5 kilos is the most in demand ahead of Easter, and could go for around NOK 80 ($7.60/€6.80) delivered in Oslo. For 6+ kilo fish, I estimate NOK 71–75 ($6.75–$7.13 / €6.04–€6.38).”
“5–6 kilo can follow 4–5, and 6–7 can follow 5–6. And the ‘prod situation’ is under control now. There’s always too much ‘prod’ going into a holiday week,” he said.
He added that he’s not overly worried about tariffs.
“Canada’s essentially excluded, and the Chileans are only hit with ten percent. That’s manageable,” he said.
Moving sideways
“Still a lot of fish. It seems like farmers have a bit more ‘prod’ right now – that’s tricky,” a trader said.
“We’ll just have to see how it plays out. But I think the market is moving sideways at the moment. We haven’t started buying yet, but the signals from customers suggest sideways movement.”
Another farmer also hadn’t started selling fish that day.
“We haven’t sold anything yet, so it’s based on customer feedback and what others are offering. But we’re seeing NOK 71 ($6.75/€6.04) for 3–4 kilos, NOK 72 ($6.84/€6.12) for 4–5, and NOK 75 ($7.13/€6.38) for 5–6. There’s a real reluctance to take positions,” he said.
SalmonBusiness gathers spot prices for salmon every Friday after lunch, tracking fish to be delivered the following week. This process involves contacting multiple entities in the value chain, including farmers, exporters, and importers. At least five independent sources are consulted, though they may not always be publicly disclosed.