The Norwegian salmon market is experiencing record demand, with strong export figures and rising prices underpinning investor optimism, according to a report from Infront TDN Direkt.
The seafood index on Oslo Børs gained 1.8% on Wednesday, reflecting the sector’s positive outlook despite broader market uncertainty.
Exports of Norwegian salmon reached €252 million last week, followed by €251 million this week, representing a 13.6% increase year-on-year. “These strong demand figures are a very positive indication that the market is now better than ever,” the report cited Arctic Securities as saying.
Spot prices for salmon stood at NOK 80.8 per kilogram last week, with Arctic Securities forecasting a rise to NOK 90 per kilogram by the end of this week due to declining harvest activity. Arctic also highlighted that slaughter volumes are expected to decrease significantly from 2025 onwards, driving prices higher.
“The high demand levels we are seeing now greatly reduce the risk of demand development toward 2025,” the report noted. Arctic downplayed the likelihood of U.S. tariffs disrupting the market, stating: “Why would Trump impose tariffs on a product the U.S. does not produce itself?”
Despite the optimistic demand signals, Arctic Securities pointed to several risks facing the salmon market, including potential regulatory changes, fish health issues, and the possibility of new tariffs. “The salmon market is delivering on all fronts. Why aren’t the stocks rising more? What are the risks?” Arctic queried.
The firm also observed that while tariffs could weaken the Norwegian krone, this might partially offset revenue losses. On the domestic political front, Arctic suggested that significant regulatory changes are unlikely before a potential shift to a conservative government in September 2025.
Salmon farming stocks are currently trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 12, Arctic noted, with 2025 estimates implying a NOK 7 increase in operating profit per kilogram. “These estimates assume improvements must come; otherwise, stocks will not perform in 2025,” the firm said. “If the estimates are met, multiples will expand.”
