Seafood analyst believes in an average €5.6 salmon price next year: “Forward prices indicate downside in our estimates”

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Pareto analyst Carl-Emil Kjølås Johannessen believes the average price for 2021 will be more than 50 per-cent higher than the current spot price.

SB on Friday reported spot prices between EUR 3.4 and EUR 3.6 a kilo , during one of the busiest shopping periods. It’s the lowest level of the year and miles below investment bank estimates.

“A seasonally high supply is hitting subdued demand, both in the HoReCa segment, but also as a result of the closure of fresh food counters in grocery stores,” Pareto Securities wrote in an analysis update, according to TDN Finans.

“The price in the fourth quarter seems to come in at an average of NOK 43 (EUR 4 .ed) per kilo, which is significantly below our estimate of NOK 52 (EUR 4.9 .ed) per kilo.”

Analyst Carl-Emil Kjølås Johannessen noted that forward prices for 2021 have also come down significantly. Prices in the first quarter are expected to be EUR 5.2, and the second quarter’s anticipated to be EUR 5.5 per kilo, compared to EUR 6 and EUR 6.1 per kilo two months ago.

“The current forward prices indicate a downside in our estimates as we have currently included a price of NOK 60 (EUR 5.6 .ed) per kilo for 2021,” Johannessen wrote.

Competing seafood analyst Christopher Robin Vinter of Sparebank1 Markets believes in even higher prices than Kjølås Johannessen. He estimated an average price of NOK EUR 5.8 next year. It’s enough to make shiny BUY recommendations on all the fish shares he is covering.